Coinbase may be losing retail crypto traders to Robinhood: Mizuho

Mizuho analyst says Coinbase may be losing share in retail crypto trading.
Dan Dolev continues to see downside in the crypto exchange to $27 a share.
Coinbase stock is currently down 35% versus its year-to-date high in March.

Coinbase Global Inc remains at the risk of having its stock price cut in half, says Dan Dolev. He’s a Senior Analyst at Mizuho.

Coinbase stock could crash to $27

Dolev maintained his “underperform” rating on the crypto exchange today. His $27 price objective suggests shares could tank an alarming 50% from here.

The analyst is super bearish on Coinbase stock partially because he suspects that it’s losing share in retail trading to peer Robinhood Markets Inc.

Our analysis suggests that COIN’s share of combined COIN retail + Hood crypto volumes trended lower in April vs. the approx. 65% ratio in the prior three quarters.

Part of it may be related to the lawsuit the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filed against the crypto company last week.

Coinbase has increased trading fees

Dan Dolev also cited trading fees as a possible reason why Coinbase Global Inc is losing to Robinhood.

The crypto exchange has resorted to higher fees for small-ticket traders to offset volume declines which may have pushed them to Robinhood as it has refrained from increasing fees so far, the Mizuho analyst told clients in a research note today.

If we assume that COIN maintained share and retail take rate held constant at 168bps in April … this would imply $117 million of retail transactions for April.

In comparison, the company recently reported a lower $110 million of total transaction revenue in April. Coinbase stock is currently down 35% versus its year-to-date high.